Bitcoin held in a narrow range ahead of Fed decision

Bitcoin has been in the center of investors' attention after the recent price slump: with a drop below $116,000, the largest cryptocurrency failed to maintain its growth momentum and moved into a sideways movement stage. At the moment, quotes are flanking in the range of $114,000-123,000, creating shaky preconditions for the next upward throw or a deep pullback. The main attention of the market is focused on the results of the upcoming Fed meeting on monetary policy, which may set the direction for a new price impulse. Instability in the global financial markets increases interest in digital assets as an alternative insurance instrument.

Technical indicators show a mixed picture: on the one hand, the price continues to hold inside the ascending channel, and on the other hand, it faces supply pressure. The key driver was a large transaction from an inactive wallet for about $1.2 billion, which increased the uncertainty around the volume of liquidity. Analysts emphasize that maintaining stability above the 0.5 Fibonacci level will be critical to resuming the bullish trend and attracting new buyers. Combined with low daily trading volumes, this creates vulnerability to sharp swings. Promising patterns are already visible on the charts of the 4-hour interval.

Onchain data confirms the presence of significant movements by major players: the $1.2 billion transfer triggered a short-term sell-off to the $115,000-116,000 support zone. Without sufficient demand at this mark, the price risks deepening towards $110,000. Investors focused on medium-term strategies evaluate these levels as potential entry points, given Bitcoin's historical propensity to rebound after major corrections. In parallel, there is growing interest in long-term coin storage, which is contributing to an increase in the share of small transactions on the blockchain.

If buying activity persists, a test of the $121,000-122,000 zone is possible, where local highs were previously recorded. The formation of a bullish flag on the charts with a four-hour timeframe indicates readiness to continue growth. However, to confirm this scenario, it is necessary to break through the $123,000 mark and hold above it for several trading sessions. Otherwise, selling pressure may bring the price back to the lower boundaries of the range. In this context, it is important to keep an eye on trading volumes during key hours.

Market sentiment remains fragmented: some players attribute Bitcoin's recent resilience to expectations of tariff policy easing in the European Union, while others are wary of large-scale exits by early holders. The sale of coins from the early years of the network is seen as a signal of the beginning of asset reallocation and possible changes in institutional portfolios. Uncertainty around macroeconomic forecasts is causing additional concerns, which increases caution when opening new positions. The interest in long-term investing is still growing against the backdrop of volatility. In this regard, some experts recommend protecting the portfolio through derivative instruments. This approach allows to reduce risks in case of sharp fluctuations.

Forecasts for further price dynamics vary in a wide range. According to the technical model, published recently, the expected growth is about 1.5%, which will bring the price to $120,030 in the next 24 hours. Speculative estimates targeting $128,000 are not yet supported by fundamental data and remain a matter of debate. Meanwhile, retail demand is showing moderate growth, but trading volumes by major participants continue to define key support and resistance levels.

With the key FOMC meeting coming up, traders will closely monitor not only the rate decision, but also the nuances of the regulator's comments on inflation and economic outlook. In parallel, market participants are discussing the July expiration of large option contracts, which may become a catalyst for volatility. The combination of these factors - macroeconomic signals and structural changes in liquidity - will certainly set the tone for the next stages of the price struggle, in which the balance of power will be determined by the speed of reaction of participants.