Bitcoin stalled at $111,000 amid expectations of Beijing's retaliatory moves

After violent fluctuations in the first half of the week, the exchange rate has consolidated in the corridor of $109,000-112,000, and the daily amplitude has narrowed. The external trigger is obvious - the market is lying low, watching Beijing preparing measures in response to the American tariffs. The pause in global indices was instantly reflected in the digital segment: total capitalization froze near $3.8 trillion, showing the balance between cautious buyers and equally restrained sellers.

Fresh onchain reports suggest there is no panic. After a record $19 billion in forced closures, leverage has declined markedly and the pressure of force-selling has subsided. The fear index has fallen to 34 points, but sellers are in no hurry to attack, mindful that every touch of $110,000 attracted counter demand. "The bears seem to have had enough," notes one analyst, adding that participants are waiting for a fresh benchmark before ramping up risk.

Techniques support a wait-and-see formation. The $109,000-$110,000 zone has served as a fulcrum since August, and as long as candles close higher, the base case scenario suggests a smooth climb higher. A loss of range can quickly move the market from calm to defensive mode: a vacuum of bids is visible below the level.

Fundamental touches add confidence to the bulls. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen to 0.9 - a record in recent years - reinforcing the image of the "digital metal". The yellow metal is rising in price on geopolitical worries, and cryptocurrency is following suit, acting as an alternative hedge. In parallel, the inflow of funds into bitcoin-based funds and the expansion of the supply of stablecoins form a liquid reserve capable of fueling the next impulse.

In private notes, strategists emphasize: the past collapse taught traders to restrain their excitement, so the current consolidation is seen as a healthy respite. Investors are attentively listening to the Fed's hints about possible policy easing, but at the same time they fear a new round of tariff rhetoric. It is the macro backdrop that will determine whether the sideways march to $115,000-118,000 will develop into a march to $115,000-118,000 or give way to a deeper pullback.

The observed activity of large portfolios confirms a tidy accumulation around $110,000: volumes are growing without spikes, signaling a supply shortage. If external pressure eases, latent demand has the potential to quickly accelerate the price. Until then, bitcoin remains a taut bowstring: the longer the preparation, the more convincing the shot may be