Bitcoin at a crossroads: selling pressure intensifies after recent rally

At the beginning of the week, the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $117,200, having lost almost 5% from the peak of $122,000 recorded on Monday evening. The turnaround coincided with D. Trump's announcement of his intention to impose a 30% tariff on a wide range of European and Mexican goods, which imbalanced sentiment in the markets and prompted investors to take profits after a four-day rally.

The breakout above $122,000 turned out to be false: the daily volume profile showed a saturated cluster of sellers' bids, which formed a so-called supply block. The bounce down quickly brought the price back to the average Bollinger line on the four-hour timeframe - $117,300. The lower boundary of the indicator and EMA-100 concentrated just below $115,500, forming the first line of defense of buyers.

Intraday volatility is intensifying: the range of true movement has expanded to $4,300 per day, while the correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq-100 index has shrunk to 0.28, emphasizing the asset's more independent dynamics.

On the derivatives floors, there is a noticeable bias in favor of short-term hedging. Aggregate futures and options volume jumped 31.8% to $147.18 billion, but open interest sagged to $86.11 billion. Such a sharp divergence usually signals the closing of over-hedged positions: $181 million was liquidated in the last 24 hours, with buyers accounting for $141.7 million, confirming the fading of bullish momentum.

Coinglass data indicates that negative net inflows to spot exchanges reached $477.9 million, with outflows seen even as the momentum was growing. Large wallets, judging by chain data, are moving coins into cold storage or to OTC venues, avoiding price pressure.

The shift in dominant strength was also evident in technical indicators: the Supertrend reversed down at $121,563, the Directional Movement Index showed -DI crossing over +DI, and the ADX value held above 25 - a combination traditionally interpreted as the beginning of a trend decline. Additionally, the 20-period EMA on the 4H chart turned horizontal, hinting at a consolidation phase.

The $115,000-117,000 zone is critical in the short term. If the buyers hold it, a technical rebound to $119,000-120,000 is possible, where stop orders of the first shorts are concentrated. If the mark 115 000$ is shed, the next support will be 112 400$, after which the pattern of the daily triangle suggests a retest of the range 107 700-103 800$.

Changes in the macro arena add to the nervousness: the threat of trade conflicts strengthened the demand for US Treasuries, simultaneously provoking the growth of funding on dollar pairs. In such conditions, hedge funds are reducing aggressive bets on Bitcoin's continued growth, disciplined in following the mandate to control VaR.

Algo-trading divisions of the largest exchanges have already adjusted models: rollback limits have been raised at fixed speed response, margin leverage has been balanced, and recommendations are being formed for clients to monitor the expansion of the range of volatility realization and possible arbitrage signals between futures and options.