Where bitcoin may meet resistance: a linear trendline at $115,300 or a logarithmic barrier at $223,000

Bitcoin has not fallen below $100,000 for eight weeks, and is now held in a narrow corridor of $108,000-$109,000. The outwardly calm market hides the gradual build-up of positions with long-term capital, so traders' attention is focused on two price targets, each of which is capable of turning consolidation into rapid movement.

The first level is built on a linear scale: a trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 highs takes resistance to $115,300. In December and January, attempts to consolidate above this value ended with a reversal to $75,000. Now the same marks are being defended by large option sellers: open interest in August-expiry call contracts is concentrated between $112,000 and $115,000, and market makers have widened spreads to offset the risk of a sharp breakdown.

The linear scale reflects absolute changes, so institutional analysts prefer a logarithmic chart. On it, the same trendline indicates resistance much higher, around $223,000. Past bull cycles have more often ended at logarithmic ceilings, and a comparative analysis of inflows into exchange-traded funds shows that interest in the $200,000 approach may remain high if macro risks do not intensify.

Onchain metrics add to the bulls' argument. Addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC have recorded net gains for nine consecutive weeks, while retail investors are gradually reducing positions. At the same time, coins are leaving centralized exchanges, forming a deficit of free liquidity. In the open-ended futures market, the funding rate remains positive and the risk-reward ratio is shifted towards call options, emphasizing the expectation of continued growth.

The likely scenarios look contrasting. A consolidation above $115,300 could trigger a chain reaction of shorts closing and a quick march to $130,000-$135,000, where about $800 million of stop orders are concentrated. A break above $223,000 would bring the market into a new phase: funds with strict risk management mandates would have to partially lock in profits, which would increase supply and change the balance of power.

Bitcoin now resembles a compressed spring: volatility and spot volumes have fallen to yearly lows, but every change in regulatory expectations instantly brings algorithmic strategies out of hibernation. They track micro changes in liquidity and are ready to unleash momentum as soon as the price touches one of the key trendlines. Additional intrigue is created by the growth of open bets on the dollar index: historically, its reversal towards strengthening has often coincided with the local peaks of cryptocurrencies. If the pattern repeats, the upper boundary of the range may be reached faster than the consensus suggests.